From 80,000 Hours: In early 2025, after OpenAI put out the first-ever reasoning models — o1 and o3 — short timelines to transformative artificial general intelligence swept the AI world. But then, in the second half of 2025, sentiment swung all the way back in the other direction, with people’s forecasts for when AI might really shake up the world blowing out even further than they had been before reasoning models came along.
What the hell happened? Was it just swings in vibes and mood? Confusion? A series of fundamentally unexpected and unpredictable research results?
Host Rob Wiblin has been trying to make sense of it for himself, and here’s the best explanation he’s come up with so far.